Nobody seems to be making much of it, but 538 is currently giving Trump almost exactly the same odds for a 2020 win as it did in 2016pic.twitter.com/cxwZ3kdLnQ
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Yeah, it's a numerical coincidence. A 70% chance the day before an election and a 70% chance months before an election don't actually mean the same thing in terms of the situation on the ground.
Of course 2020 and 2016 are entirely different situations. But whatever you're trying to convince yourself of now, I recommend exercising some caution. We're still talking about a model that outperformed everything else last time around, and was thoroughly derided for it.
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For what it's worth, I feel pretty confident in my ability to internalize what a 30% probability means, and I have a reasonable amount of faith in 538s expertise on these subjects.
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Although their prediction is constrained to "the election plays out as normal without extralegal shenanigans." So it'd be wrong to take that number at face value without further analysis.
End of conversation
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