Same map basically also
Nobody seems to be making much of it, but 538 is currently giving Trump almost exactly the same odds for a 2020 win as it did in 2016pic.twitter.com/cxwZ3kdLnQ
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Isn't this just a result of much greater overall uncertainty re:covid? He's much further behind in the polls than he was at this point in 2016.
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Yeah, it's a numerical coincidence. A 70% chance the day before an election and a 70% chance months before an election don't actually mean the same thing in terms of the situation on the ground.
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Hasn't been lost on fivethirtyeight, though.pic.twitter.com/aOKSiYNGFz
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Was suprised to see PA as a battleground state... that's not great for Biden (if we consider Hillary's shock losses was PA/WI/MI)
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History has to repeat itself a couple more times before we know how well calibrated they actually are
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These are the probabilities before you allow for preference falsification which was a big factor in 2016. Difficult to quantify tho. I'd worry about a debate. Trump for all his flaws has a gift for rhetoric and would do well head to head.
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Trump has always been terrible in head to head debates. Trump's debate strategy worked much better when he could get into a childish name calling match with 10 other candidates on stage.
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silent majority time
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I've heard this take a lot, do you have any good sources of evidence here?
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