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Meanwhile, people who follow the rules can protect *themselves* from the virus, but at the cost of nearly every protective factor we've identified against the ever-rising "deaths of despair": suicide, alcoholism and drug abuse. And without broader compliance, COVID still spikes.
At this point, urban centers need to figure out what policy is sustainable on a timescale of *years* and start moving toward that. The days of "if we just do this for 6-8 weeks..." are over. Cities like SF got their 2 months of solid compliance and they largely squandered it.
Yup, exactly. Squandered. It would be difficult or impossible to get people to cooperate as much again, so soon, and with no solid probability of working this time because of that.
No one wants to hear this, but the likely answer is that no policy is sustainable over that long. “You’re not allowed to live” is unsustainable, and living will produce spread. In the absence of a vaccine the virus will spread and we will reach herd immunity, as per history.
Mostly agree. I think the only reasonable long-term strategies will involve lower-cost norms like mask-wearing and removing regulatory barriers that have previously made it difficult or impractical to do business outdoors, on public sidewalks etc.
It wasn't solid compliance though. There were a lot of people not following guidances. They should start actually enforcing the policies starting with fining people going outside without a mask and refusing to socially distance.
This might be a mighty tall order when public trust in law enforcement is in the gutter.
At this point the options are likely vaccine, herd immunity, or miracle. Based on pace, mid 2021 seems like best option.
Also, government authorities with a track record of acting within proportionate limits on other issues (eg, SF housing) would not lead to “sovereign citizen” movements, at least in an obvious emergency like a pandemic. But, no limits -> reaction.
I've become sort of a broken record on this but I really think Romer-style testing can solve this once the FDA unblocks E25Bio type tests. Want a wedding/funeral/choir rehearsal etc? Fine, everyone take this $5 same-day test first and you're safe enough.
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