Specifically, my prediction is that we're about 2-3 weeks from a big spike in hospitalizations and 4-6 weeks out from a big spike in deaths. But I haven't looked at lead time data recently, so that's definitely just napkin math
Show this thread
The spike in new COVID-19 cases that began ~2-3 weeks ago may be disproportionately hitting younger people — plausibly, there will be no massive mortality spike for *them,* but a delayed spike striking the more vulnerable people they infect yesterday, today, tomorrow. https://twitter.com/jasoncrawford/status/1280394616286502912 …pic.twitter.com/iXJ2IypORO
-
-
-
...and in case it's unclear, I'm implying no particular policy response. Fiscally and culturally, we've navigated ourselves into an extremely volatile and tricky position. Godspeed to the decision-makers.
Show this thread
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
It’s possible that, as we were starting to assume, COVID is charged by super spreaders. If the massive spike among young people was a result of bars reopening and mass protests, it may just burn out with them and not hit the more cautious elderly at any where near the same rate.
-
At least that’s the hope.
End of conversation
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.