Preference falsification is going to be an even greater factor in November than it was in 2016, which will make it very difficult to use traditional strategies (e.g. polling) to model likely outcomes. I think we're basically going to be flying blind until election day
-
Show this thread
-
Replying to @webdevMason
This is just a clinical way of saying lying, right?
2 replies 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @sashintweets
kinda, but it's possibly subtler than that at the edges... 2016 saw substantial support for Johnson, but when the election came his support collapsed and most of those votes appear to have gone to Trump — it's not clear if people had been lying to themselves or just to pollsters
3 replies 0 retweets 6 likes -
Replying to @webdevMason @sashintweets
I think a lot of those people probably did like Johnson, and it was MUCH more socially acceptable to like Johnson than to like Trump I think a lot of people didn't want to admit to themselves that they were going to vote for someone their friends/loved ones absolutely hated
2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes -
Replying to @webdevMason @sashintweets
There isn't a strong-ish third party candidate this time (in my opinion), so I think people may tell pollsters they're undecided or plan not to vote... and then vote for Trump again, it's not clear whether they'll believe what they're saying at the time that they say it
1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes -
Replying to @webdevMason
This makes a lot of sense. It seems likely that it is a little from column A and a little from column B. I hope a lot has changed since four years ago. Your point of "stupid vs evil" is important. If people feel forced to conceal their preferences they are unreachable.
1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
yeah, and at this point a lot of unambiguous Trump voters *will* be lying simply because their lives aren't sustainable if their children, coworkers, etc. think they're evil if I were in their position, I'd lie, too!
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.