Preference falsification is going to be an even greater factor in November than it was in 2016, which will make it very difficult to use traditional strategies (e.g. polling) to model likely outcomes. I think we're basically going to be flying blind until election day
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There isn't a strong-ish third party candidate this time (in my opinion), so I think people may tell pollsters they're undecided or plan not to vote... and then vote for Trump again, it's not clear whether they'll believe what they're saying at the time that they say it
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This makes a lot of sense. It seems likely that it is a little from column A and a little from column B. I hope a lot has changed since four years ago. Your point of "stupid vs evil" is important. If people feel forced to conceal their preferences they are unreachable.
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Johnson really blew it. A LOT of ppl really did want to vote for him. But he didn't know where Aleppo was, or what it was, and he couldn't name a single world leader he admired. It seemed like he had failed to even read a newspaper once a week.
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