Variolation! We should say it louder for the people in the back rows!
IMO, the most compelling argument against this is that viral dose may have a significant impact on severity of COVID. (This may partially explain the many young medical staff who've succumbed.) If so, household spread may be far more dangerous than spread via brief contacts.https://twitter.com/naval/status/1250862893605634048 …
-
-
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
theres stronger arguments than that -- we don't understand the pathogenesis of the disease in severe/moderate cases, but it does seem to involve very serious dysfunction in immune and coagulation systems, and we dont know the long-term sequelae (and those of SARS were bad)
-
We dont know if in mild/moderate cases if there's effects of inflammation or coagulopathy that knock years off lifespan or a standard deviation off IQ or fuck up pulmonary function for life? The total effect of exposing a whole generation of people could very well be a tragedy.
- Show replies
New conversation -
-
-
True, we might have to reorganize living situations for a couple of months. For those who can't, treat the household as susceptible. Still improvement over total lockdown.
-
And of course still wear masks and use other precautions.
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
That and the fact that the social graph isn't randomized with respect to age. Therefore the desired herd immunity *won't occur* The herd_immune%=1-1/R0 *only* applies if the distribution of immune through the social graph is *random*
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
I think this underrates the risk to old people of young people being widely infected. Going to the grocery store is somewhat safe currently because the virus is still fairly rare. If 20% of the population had it, itd be impossible to go outside.
-
45+ is around half the US population, so the logistical challenge of delivering necessities to all of them would be enormous. They're also probably a huge majority of skilled workers, so plenty of them we still have (and possibly need?) going to work.
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
And it won't work. Imagine a social graph. (Clusters of) old people get infected by young people who are adjacent in the graph. If these young get infected simultaneously, the old will be sick simultaneously. If we smear it out among the young, it is smeared out among the old.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Would love a study on severity based on 'order of family infection' + indiv. risk factors. I'd hypothesize: 65yo male infected in passing at store, gives to wife, both mild 65yo wife infected at store, gives severe case to husband. Makes me want my dad to do the shopping...
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.