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One thing I actually appreciate about Matt Yglesias is that he regularly tells his audience exactly what he thinks of them https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1250419328719126528 …
Presumably he doesn't think Slate Star Scott's audience is too dumb to understand basic probability; I certainly don't think that of mine. Yet Matt constantly pontificates that Vox's readership's primary blind spots are imbued by their education and professional success. Curious.
All I know is that low-key inferring that the people who listen to you are blinkered sheep is a great way to ensure that the only ones left standing are indeed pretty sheeplike
It’s not just audience view, it’s also innumeracy: he’s imagining that the world is bathed in a constant stream of 5% probability disasters. But if that was true, we’d have a constant stream of actual disasters at 1/20th the rate, and actually disasters at this scale are rare.
The primary comparison I've seen is 1918. You'd have disease-related disaster warnings of this sort every five years. A major war every 20 seems reasonable (consider Soleimani, 5% the day after would have been fair). That would get old fast!
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