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It was only a week ago that the CDC started recommending we cover our faces when we're out. 2 weeks ago an epidemiologist was telling me people shouldn't wear cloth masks because they might *increase* the risk of COVID. I want to know how to put skin in the game for expertise.pic.twitter.com/jTnnGc4NHE
Most of what we call "expertise" is just people running decent checklist scripts; that's only OK if everyone understands that A few folks have enough of a real model to generate novel stuff with a higher hit rate than noise, but no institution is competent enough to certify them
"Nullus in verba" - but taken seriously once again.
RWRI certification might help :)
There are people who believe those checklist scripts are exactly equivalent to expertise and that the latter thing you described doesn't exist.
Stick around in one field for a long time you do end up with a nice big checklist. Not easy to shortcut tho’ if you are adding robustness by correlating to experience.
Can you recommend any sources on this? I'm writing an article on the legitimacy crisis of those certifying institutions.
I don’t know whether orgs are too incompetent to certify or whether the certification is just not particularly incentive compatible. The world has replete evidence orgs capable of continuous, predictable winning over a timescale of decades. Maybe they’re lucky. Maybe they cheat.
One of the tensions the last few months is exposing is that some orgs optimize for winning and some optimize for social capital, but both of them think they deserve the word “expert.”
All about that mimicry.https://twitter.com/justinowings/status/1157725528620748800?s=19 …
https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/988180517693677569 …Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.
