Most of what we call "expertise" is just people running decent checklist scripts; that's only OK if everyone understands that A few folks have enough of a real model to generate novel stuff with a higher hit rate than noise, but no institution is competent enough to certify them
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This affair has made me wonder how much confidently shared expert knowledge is just trickled just down parroting
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I just don’t get it. I can’t understand why they couldn’t even exercise the precautionary principle in saying that some form of barrier is *likely* better than nothing.
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She saw that there was an RCT that concluded that cloth masks increase risk. In reality, the control was too poorly designed to be useful & the conclusion required pulling in comparison data that should never have been used. But "RCT" is a magic word that terminates the script.
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Online $ prediction markets must MERGE with pandemic modelling. Scientists have risk of large payoff if their model is highly accurate, and risk downside if not. (Side markets of people betting on them might help, too)
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experts don't know shit, few years ago I got h1n1, was prescribed oseltamir well after the 36-48 hour time frame when its supposed to be effective. had a massive reaction, doctor asked to consume the entire regimen would have died of liver failure if I had followed his advice
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i appreciated it before but now I like
@balajis 's profile description("not big on credentialism..") even more. im just wondering how much harm these profile descriptions have caused, like people see a tweet, visit profile, see they're an epidemiologist, tweet"hey, they're right"Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Another case where using the heuristic "Never listen to anyone with pronouns in their bio" makes life much easier. Trusting "experts" is always a mistake—reasoning through everything by yourself is the only option in times like these.https://twitter.com/SvenSchnieders/status/1247939379886260224?s=19 …
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I've never seen an exception to the pronoun rule. It's an amazing heuristic thus far.
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