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It was only a week ago that the CDC started recommending we cover our faces when we're out. 2 weeks ago an epidemiologist was telling me people shouldn't wear cloth masks because they might *increase* the risk of COVID. I want to know how to put skin in the game for expertise.pic.twitter.com/jTnnGc4NHE
Most of what we call "expertise" is just people running decent checklist scripts; that's only OK if everyone understands that A few folks have enough of a real model to generate novel stuff with a higher hit rate than noise, but no institution is competent enough to certify them
This affair has made me wonder how much confidently shared expert knowledge is just trickled just down parroting
I just don’t get it. I can’t understand why they couldn’t even exercise the precautionary principle in saying that some form of barrier is *likely* better than nothing.
Confident expertise presents a simplified but broadly accurate picture of facts and recommendations, with appropriate caveats; brittle and arrogant expertise believes that for status reasons it cannot permit itself to seem uncertain, or weak, or in any way not in control.
That does seem to be the thrust behind Mason's recent tweets on the topic -- sowing distrust of experts on the basis of common sense and a moralistic attitude. But the whole point of academic experts is that they should be wary of advising anything that hasn't been proven.
Online $ prediction markets must MERGE with pandemic modelling. Scientists have risk of large payoff if their model is highly accurate, and risk downside if not. (Side markets of people betting on them might help, too)
experts don't know shit, few years ago I got h1n1, was prescribed oseltamir well after the 36-48 hour time frame when its supposed to be effective. had a massive reaction, doctor asked to consume the entire regimen would have died of liver failure if I had followed his advice
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