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It was only a week ago that the CDC started recommending we cover our faces when we're out. 2 weeks ago an epidemiologist was telling me people shouldn't wear cloth masks because they might *increase* the risk of COVID. I want to know how to put skin in the game for expertise.pic.twitter.com/jTnnGc4NHE
Most of what we call "expertise" is just people running decent checklist scripts; that's only OK if everyone understands that A few folks have enough of a real model to generate novel stuff with a higher hit rate than noise, but no institution is competent enough to certify them
I just don’t get it. I can’t understand why they couldn’t even exercise the precautionary principle in saying that some form of barrier is *likely* better than nothing.
She saw that there was an RCT that concluded that cloth masks increase risk. In reality, the control was too poorly designed to be useful & the conclusion required pulling in comparison data that should never have been used. But "RCT" is a magic word that terminates the script.
This affair has made me wonder how much confidently shared expert knowledge is just trickled just down parroting
Another case where using the heuristic "Never listen to anyone with pronouns in their bio" makes life much easier. Trusting "experts" is always a mistake—reasoning through everything by yourself is the only option in times like these.https://twitter.com/SvenSchnieders/status/1247939379886260224?s=19 …
I've never seen an exception to the pronoun rule. It's an amazing heuristic thus far.
That does seem to be the thrust behind Mason's recent tweets on the topic -- sowing distrust of experts on the basis of common sense and a moralistic attitude. But the whole point of academic experts is that they should be wary of advising anything that hasn't been proven.
I love This Week in Virology, but only a few weeks ago one of their experts was talking about how silly it would be to wear masks. I nearly stopped subscribing. I'm glad I didn't, but it was definitely a low point for the show.
yeah i love them and have been listening to every episode but they were constantly behind on worrying about transmission outside china, masks, zoonotic reservoirs, etc
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