It's odd that the most consequential decisions around this disease involved a percentage nobody knew/knows with any certainty (fatality rate). Even now people are split between "it's like the flu, let it spread" vs "it's like SARS/MERS, shut it down." (I'm in the latter camp.)
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It feels like it's been forever, so people aren't fully realizing that we're still — even at this moment — at the very start of this event.
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Don't look at me I voted 50-95% on all
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Do you have links? Curious how I voted
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yeah we are at 16,000 and peaking soon
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Regrettably, I believe we are actually north of 20,000 now?pic.twitter.com/bpQmAurYRP
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The best data available seems to suggest that the overall fatality rate (for a western Europe age distribution) seems to be somewhere between 0.1 and 1%. Possible that more than a million die in the US, but I would consider it not too likely. The poll is not too far off
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However, with high probability, there will not be an additional 1 million deaths due to COVID in addition to cancer, heart disease, dementia etc. A lot of people who would have, unfortunately, succumbed to those diseases might now die of COVID.
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I think the likelihood of at least one US city having a strict quarantine is 100%
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