Lockdown can't persist until a validated treatment or vaccine. I take COVID very seriously, and I don't think it's reasonable to pursue herd immunity. But we need to start seeing some solid proposals for the next phase of the war.
-
Even countries like Iceland that have taken to mass testing warn that a case that tests positive without symptoms may or may not present with symptoms later on. Unless you know the date of exposure, it's anyone's guess whether you're a "true" asymptomatic case or still incubating
Consider this: average 1 week of incubation, up to 2 weeks; 1 week or so mild symptoms, 2 weeks severe symptoms. So if x% test positive asymptomatic, should we assume a quarter of those are still in the incubation period?
-
-
No. It's going to be much higher than that, assuming exponential growth. Why? Same issue as before. You can expect that roughly half of your extant cases were contracted in the last week. Eventually lockdowns stretch that timespan.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.