Lockdown can't persist until a validated treatment or vaccine. I take COVID very seriously, and I don't think it's reasonable to pursue herd immunity. But we need to start seeing some solid proposals for the next phase of the war.
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If you have a massive % of the population exposed, incubated + asymptomatic, you can expect the duration of the crisis to be shorter, but the severity to be no less acute. But there's no solid evidence that that's the case.
Even countries like Iceland that have taken to mass testing warn that a case that tests positive without symptoms may or may not present with symptoms later on. Unless you know the date of exposure, it's anyone's guess whether you're a "true" asymptomatic case or still incubating
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Consider this: average 1 week of incubation, up to 2 weeks; 1 week or so mild symptoms, 2 weeks severe symptoms. So if x% test positive asymptomatic, should we assume a quarter of those are still in the incubation period?
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No. It's going to be much higher than that, assuming exponential growth. Why? Same issue as before. You can expect that roughly half of your extant cases were contracted in the last week. Eventually lockdowns stretch that timespan.
End of conversation
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