Lockdown can't persist until a validated treatment or vaccine. I take COVID very seriously, and I don't think it's reasonable to pursue herd immunity. But we need to start seeing some solid proposals for the next phase of the war.
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Cohort, not demographic. If in fact you're dealing with exponential growth, the bulk of your cases should be expected to be newer. Nobody is dying of this during the incubation period. Nobody is dying of this during the first week or so of relatively mild symptoms.
Analyzing deaths vs. recoveries will overestimate CFR, because deaths happen faster than recoveries. Analyzing deaths vs. total cases will underestimate CFR, because new cases happen faster than deaths from prior cohorts.
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I'd say further, even *if*
@NoblePublius's 2nd column's assumption of 9x more untested cases is true, & that TFR correct, the USA has about 40% of its population in that 'sick' category - so 330M * 40% * 0.2443% = 322K deaths – 107 "9/11s". -
(& in addition to cohort-based reasons *that* TFR is underestimate, current rates achieved w/ largely-uncongested hospitals – outside of hotspots – & distancing to limit infection loads & vulnerable-reached. So "not taking it seriously"
#s are a luxury earned by steps so far.)
End of conversation
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