Mason  🏃‍♂️ ✂️

This disease breaks brains. High R0 + a 1-2 week lag from infection to symptoms & a 3-4 week lag from infection to death means the current state of the system is completely opaque w/o ubiquitous testing That said, long-term lockdown isn't risk averse, it's insane, we need a plan

I'd estimate 0.5-1% CFR where hospital systems aren't overwhelmed (to the point of triage to palliative) & 2+% where they are Risk factors aren't evenly distributed. 10.9% of Americans are diabetic. Last data I saw: 1/3 of ICU cases diabetic. We're not going to look like S Korea

Just FYI, as of this morning there are 4,758 NY deaths meaning that in the past *month*, a roughly equal number of people have died of COVID in the state as generally die of the flu + pneumonia in a *year*

COVID is known to cause heart damage via multiple pathways; hypertension + cardiovascular disease are risk factors on par with lung disease But "deaths overstated" is a fun take while NYC considered mass burials in a park because they don't have enough freezer trucks

For reference, NYC had a morgue capacity of 900, and that's worked just fine for them prior to this — that should give you a sense of how mortality has exploded in the city in the past 2-3 weeks

You're working from the assumption that these issues are due to sheer body count and not bottle necks. 1) Funeral homes are not taking bodies because they get their money from gatherings, which cannot be held. 2) Morgues are holding bodies longer bc of testing requirements