327m Americans 10% = 32m 1% = 3.2m .1% = 327k .01% = 32,700 infection rate range of 1/3rd to everyone & a fatality rate from .2% to 8% (?!) US deaths 9k At 900 deaths a day for a month we would see the .01% range—or flu season Discuss/speculate in this safe space thread
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Just FYI, as of this morning there are 4,758 NY deaths meaning that in the past *month*, a roughly equal number of people have died of COVID in the state as generally die of the flu + pneumonia in a *year*
It should definitely be noted that NY is playing hard mode relative to the rest of the country, having an outbreak early + slow-to-respond governance + exceptionally high density reliant on packed public transit But — at least under those conditions — this thing is no joke
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for sure it's serious, thankfully the death totaled < 600 two days in a row in NY (let's hope the numbers are correct) and we might--maybe??--hopefully hit an unexpected early peak. NYC Subway has to be a major vector, combined with age and diabetes being the other two.
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Heard some reports that we're just unable to test enough people specifically people who died at homehttps://twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/status/1247155771462365185 …
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There’s no doubt it will slow down because quarantines are the ultimate defense. But I think we should be ready for it to be a problem for a couple years. The way we live will change.
End of conversation
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