327m Americans 10% = 32m 1% = 3.2m .1% = 327k .01% = 32,700 infection rate range of 1/3rd to everyone & a fatality rate from .2% to 8% (?!) US deaths 9k At 900 deaths a day for a month we would see the .01% range—or flu season Discuss/speculate in this safe space thread
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I'd estimate 0.5-1% CFR where hospital systems aren't overwhelmed (to the point of triage to palliative) & 2+% where they are Risk factors aren't evenly distributed. 10.9% of Americans are diabetic. Last data I saw: 1/3 of ICU cases diabetic. We're not going to look like S Korea
Just FYI, as of this morning there are 4,758 NY deaths meaning that in the past *month*, a roughly equal number of people have died of COVID in the state as generally die of the flu + pneumonia in a *year*
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It should definitely be noted that NY is playing hard mode relative to the rest of the country, having an outbreak early + slow-to-respond governance + exceptionally high density reliant on packed public transit But — at least under those conditions — this thing is no joke
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for sure it's serious, thankfully the death totaled < 600 two days in a row in NY (let's hope the numbers are correct) and we might--maybe??--hopefully hit an unexpected early peak. NYC Subway has to be a major vector, combined with age and diabetes being the other two.
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Easy to get to that figure when they are counting every single COVID19 patient who dies as a COVID19 death, regardless of what the physicians determines the cause of death to be. https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200401-coronavirus-why-death-and-mortality-rates-differ …pic.twitter.com/7K3cGIBg5m
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COVID is known to cause heart damage via multiple pathways; hypertension + cardiovascular disease are risk factors on par with lung disease But "deaths overstated" is a fun take while NYC considered mass burials in a park because they don't have enough freezer trucks
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