327m Americans 10% = 32m 1% = 3.2m .1% = 327k .01% = 32,700 infection rate range of 1/3rd to everyone & a fatality rate from .2% to 8% (?!) US deaths 9k At 900 deaths a day for a month we would see the .01% range—or flu season Discuss/speculate in this safe space thread
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This disease breaks brains. High R0 + a 1-2 week lag from infection to symptoms & a 3-4 week lag from infection to death means the current state of the system is completely opaque w/o ubiquitous testing That said, long-term lockdown isn't risk averse, it's insane, we need a plan
I'd estimate 0.5-1% CFR where hospital systems aren't overwhelmed (to the point of triage to palliative) & 2+% where they are Risk factors aren't evenly distributed. 10.9% of Americans are diabetic. Last data I saw: 1/3 of ICU cases diabetic. We're not going to look like S Korea
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Just FYI, as of this morning there are 4,758 NY deaths meaning that in the past *month*, a roughly equal number of people have died of COVID in the state as generally die of the flu + pneumonia in a *year*
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It should definitely be noted that NY is playing hard mode relative to the rest of the country, having an outbreak early + slow-to-respond governance + exceptionally high density reliant on packed public transit But — at least under those conditions — this thing is no joke
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