327m Americans 10% = 32m 1% = 3.2m .1% = 327k .01% = 32,700 infection rate range of 1/3rd to everyone & a fatality rate from .2% to 8% (?!) US deaths 9k At 900 deaths a day for a month we would see the .01% range—or flu season Discuss/speculate in this safe space thread
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US is the wrong level of resolution for this > 1/3 of all US cases are in New York City alone New York state: 4,517 deaths from flu/pneumonia in 2017 4,159 deaths from COVID, most in the last 2 weeks 3-4 weeks from infection to death, ~1/2 of that time asymptomatic or mild
This disease breaks brains. High R0 + a 1-2 week lag from infection to symptoms & a 3-4 week lag from infection to death means the current state of the system is completely opaque w/o ubiquitous testing That said, long-term lockdown isn't risk averse, it's insane, we need a plan
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I'd estimate 0.5-1% CFR where hospital systems aren't overwhelmed (to the point of triage to palliative) & 2+% where they are Risk factors aren't evenly distributed. 10.9% of Americans are diabetic. Last data I saw: 1/3 of ICU cases diabetic. We're not going to look like S Korea
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Just FYI, as of this morning there are 4,758 NY deaths meaning that in the past *month*, a roughly equal number of people have died of COVID in the state as generally die of the flu + pneumonia in a *year*
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