Nope, definitely not. The reason for "maybe consider" is what Scott writes in this post:https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/03/31/ssc-journal-club-macintyre-on-cloth-masks/ …
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Replying to @KelseyTuoc @sonyasupposedly
I think the evidence for cloth masks is really ambiguous and we're all making a high stakes call in an environment of intense uncertainty. (The evidence for non-cloth masks is much stronger, but we have shortages of those.)
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Replying to @KelseyTuoc @sonyasupposedly
Trying to have the courage of my convictions, here, but not more courage than I have convictions. I give, like, a 40% chance that cloth helps and a 30% chance it hurts and a 30% chance that we are never able to detect an effect of any kind.
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Replying to @KelseyTuoc @sonyasupposedly
I think "30% hurts" is *really* high. No study is perfect, but the one everyone is passing around does not, in any meaningful sense, have a control group. Second, looking at health workers who'd be at high risk even in full PPE w/ decontamination protocols doesn't tell us much.
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Replying to @webdevMason @sonyasupposedly
yeah, that's fair. Divia's point (that having a reservoir close to your face potentially matters a lot for bacteria, and can't for viruses) made me update a little; I'd probably put it lower now
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I'm curious where that 30% is coming from. is it a specific model of how harm could happen? or just a general "medicine is messy we should be less confident" thing?
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impression that medical studies that are counterintuitive and not extremely methodologically strong replicate like 30% of the time
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I mean, here's how I'm reading this study: 1) throw out the control group; it's genuinely worse than useless as described — for all we know, they always wore a medical mask in close contact with the sick 2) conclude that medical masks work better than cloth masks — makes sense!
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Hmmm, I think you can do better than my 30% heuristic here but throwing out the control group, the study still finds that the difference between surgical and cloth is too large to be consistent with cloth being net-positive unless surgical is much much better than anyone thought
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Well, my follow-up assumption is that neither medical masks nor cloth masks work well if your full-time job is with infectious patients; the point at which you reach "zero difference" depends on how long you run the study, how infectious the patient pop is, etc.
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Replying to @webdevMason @KelseyTuoc and
This is the reason it was a big no-no to pull in the "medical masks don't work" assumption from other studies, where those factors were almost certainly different
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Replying to @webdevMason @KelseyTuoc and
There's also the issue of other PPE; if the air is constantly being resaturated with droplets and/or particles and you're basically hot-boxing that to treat a patient, anything short of full lab hazmat is going to put you in serious trouble
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