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There's a lot of speculation, a lot of data that's hard to contextualize, a lot of claims that look sensible enough but are impossible to verify right now. It's probably the case that some of our most basic widespread assumptions turn out to be partially or completely false
For example, when I look at Italy's CFR by age, how am I to know whether the elderly are dying at such a tremendously higher rate because they're too sick to help, or because they're receiving palliative care while the young get put on ventilators?
So here I am using media anecdotes & messages from people [claiming to be] doctors & friends-of-friends-in-Spain to give context to data that could be misinterpreted a hundred ways. I don't think this is a terrible thing to do, but the fail rate on truth-seeking that way is high
Anyway, I'm sitting down to a clean spreadsheet and making a list of predictions with confidence level, because I think it's time to apply a little personal epistemic hygiene. This firehose of narratives and data and group chat pass-alongs is unreal
Especially the "strange case of Germany". Even in their most "infected" state NRW, there are "only" 148 dead from 15241 (0.97%) cases and they entered the partial lockdown last week. Italy, Spain, France MUCH worse.
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