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If after 2 weeks of lockdown the regional medical system is still functional and new cases are beginning to drop at a rate that appears not to overwhelm surge capacity, you can start to relax restrictions and allow *some* new infections
The critical thing is that the fatality rate appears to be something in the realm of 0.5-1% with treatment available and ~2-6% where healthcare systems have been inundated to a greater or lesser degree. And all-cause mortality will also rise where hospitals are overwhelmed.
So even if you *have* to accept some spread of a relatively dangerous illness in order to keep society functional, you really, really want to make sure it's slow enough for the hospitals to keep up
Our capacity to fight this will also improve with time, even prior to a vaccine, as a result of validated treatments and a refashioning of the supply chain for much-needed medical supplies and personal protective gear. We do need to buy ourselves time for this, but not 18 months
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