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To check my understanding, an implication you are alluding to is that lockdown cannot end until we have better data (and possibly, not even then, depending on how long immunity lasts), correct?
No, not necessarily. The problem is that there is a ~2-week delay (due to incubation, symptoms slowly arising after) between the actual state of the problem and our knowing about it. Lockdown allows us to see where we stand without making the problem even worse
If after 2 weeks of lockdown the regional medical system is still functional and new cases are beginning to drop at a rate that appears not to overwhelm surge capacity, you can start to relax restrictions and allow *some* new infections
The critical thing is that the fatality rate appears to be something in the realm of 0.5-1% with treatment available and ~2-6% where healthcare systems have been inundated to a greater or lesser degree. And all-cause mortality will also rise where hospitals are overwhelmed.
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