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Herd immunity isn't particularly speculative. If it was, vaccines would be impossible for corona.
The duration of post-infection immunity is speculative. We have annual flu vaccines for a reason, and most communities never build up anything close to herd immunity in any given year. How feasible is it for the novel coronavirus? We just don't know.
Thanks for the clarification and explaining your model.
To check my understanding, an implication you are alluding to is that lockdown cannot end until we have better data (and possibly, not even then, depending on how long immunity lasts), correct?
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