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What a lockdown buys you, especially in the absence of a widespread testing, is a chance to see the scope of the problem without dooming yourself. It takes approximately 2 weeks before today's new infections hit the medical system. Healthcare overwhelm is the #1 risk.
If you make it to the point where you see a decline in daily new cases *without* overwhelming your medical system, it's time to start reducing the most burdensome restrictions. If not, you probably want to wait for that fire to be put out.
It's not clear that you want to reduce the restrictions even at that point. If you want to assume that herd immunity is not a thing, you can't relax lock down until the entire US population has stopped seeing new cases.
Until the remaining cases can be quarantined. Very, very different. Widespread testing is necessary for this to happen. It appears to me South Korea managed this with *only* the testing and no lockdown.
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