If we're to trust the Wuhan data, it took 2 weeks for daily new cases to begin dropping. The good news is that once that begin, the decline was ~as steep as the growth. The bad news is that cumulative active cases continued to rise for some time.https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1240689047418236932 …
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What a lockdown buys you, especially in the absence of a widespread testing, is a chance to see the scope of the problem without dooming yourself. It takes approximately 2 weeks before today's new infections hit the medical system. Healthcare overwhelm is the #1 risk.
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If you make it to the point where you see a decline in daily new cases *without* overwhelming your medical system, it's time to start reducing the most burdensome restrictions. If not, you probably want to wait for that fire to be put out.
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Herd immunity isn't particularly speculative. If it was, vaccines would be impossible for corona.
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Actually; I think I need a clarification on what you mean by "herd immunity". My pardon.
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