I'm predicting that we'll consider "80-90% of cases are mild" one of the gravest health miscommunications of this decade. "Mild" was a term initially used in Chinese materials to indicate that hospitalization was not ultimately required, even if careful monitoring was.
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UK has 2.6k confirmed + testing here is slow, so that's not even everyone with symptoms, on top of that, most transmission probably stealthy, carriers probably asymptomatic + many symptomatic only feel it mildly+briefly but stay contagious I think the number must be way higher
It's just very hard to know where we're at. South Korea is the *only* country with true mass tasting. Italy is second, but still lagging significantly. Very hard to know who to use as a comparison case or what assumptions to build into a model.
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Even S Korea can't be as good at testing as the virus is at spreading though, right? Under that assumption, a lot more than we think would be asymptomatic carriers, and true number of cases would be way higher, I think. If I'm not wrong, that's reason to be optimistic.
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