IMO, if you're not talking about ICU surge capacity, you're likely missing the forest for the trees. It's understandable, but increasingly a distraction. The chief issue is healthcare overwhelm.
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I think some people are ready to wave goodbye to the weak and old and endure an Italian-style healthcare fold so their own portfolios look better. Fuck them.
The key, here, is that we're talking about something on the order of a month to get an understanding of whether we are even capable of falling into the SK condition vs. the Italy condition. "Wait and see" is like standing on the tracks.