Based on what we saw in china the healthcare system did not get overwhelmed for a more protracted time if social distancing was put into effect soon enough (provinces other than hubei). Social distancing is what buys us time to look at the data and implement long term controls
IMO, if you're not talking about ICU surge capacity, you're likely missing the forest for the trees. It's understandable, but increasingly a distraction. The chief issue is healthcare overwhelm.
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these assumptions are a joke. SK w the best testing is showing a 1% fatality rate as a floor (another ~1% still critical) & the virus is novel so likely up to 6-70% of US would contract. Once HC capacity is exceeded, any add'l hospital demand (covid or otherwise) ends up in deathpic.twitter.com/k7B0ai27xc
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since covid has a ~10% hospitalization rate itself, we're talking millions of deaths before you start factoring all the other demand for hospitals that would be ignore during this period. Realistically if ignored entirely we're talking 3-7% of the US population that could pass
End of conversation
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