Speculation and educated guesswork isn't bad, and we *should* be thinking about all of this stuff. Just remember that it's not in the same category as any estimates re: early outbreak data
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Lots of people talking about coronavirus post-infection immunity, seasonality, long-term damage, etc. All of that stuff is speculation or an educated guess. We can look at other viruses in the family & early indicators, but long-term behavior of the virus/infection is a big ???
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In this emergency we have to face ignorance about life-and-death questions like that one. I'm quite impressed that the British CSA and CMO are daring, at least sometimes, to say "we don't know", rather than purporting to derive knowledge, or probabilities, from ignorance.
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