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I think the lesson here is that it can be done without lockdowns. People can move freely, see a friend, shop — but it can't work unless people do the basics (hand washing, surface cleaning, 6-foot gap) & they'll only do that if they know there *are* cases *in their neighborhood*
I've been pretty gloomy about all this, but I think the US may still be able to get on SK's trajectory because our high case count is distributed across a number of clusters of moderate size. If each of those is managed *now,* we can avert or largely mitigate hospital overwhelm.
I’m a little concerned in my neck of the woods. Public places are crowded, and people are shaking hands and smearing them on their faces as always. Behavior will have to change rapidly.
Right now it does have to start from the top. San Francisco just made visiting *any* patient in the hospital temporarily *illegal,* and measures like that communicate to people that we're dealing with a potentially serious problem.
We have 1/5th the population density as SK. Not sure that reduces risk 5x, but it has to have a big impact on social distancing effectiveness.
It can be done but it requires a systematic CIA-like approach. The US should be ne of the countries able to pull it off — although see last sentence in screenshot (from article on link)... can’t see that happening in the US https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-response-specialre/italy-and-south-korea-virus-outbreaks-reveal-disparity-in-deaths-and-tactics-idUSKBN20Z27P …pic.twitter.com/V7WsLtn8C8
Ironically it seems like some of the pictures of bars celebrating St. Patrick's and lines at O'Hare ratcheted up the pressure to close stuff down...not sure it'll be enough but last night the pictures I saw made me sure we were screwed
I think you're mislead by the case count which is measuring the testing regime as much as the incidence. It is a trailing measure, and almost certainly wrong. The US has only detected clusters because it is only testing in the clusters. If it is in Vegas, it is everywhere.
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