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If today's the day that my city decides that the hospitals are in trouble and drastic measures will be taken, we'll still be dealing with an *exponentially growing* caseload for 1-2 weeks. Then, and only then, will new daily cases begin to decline. But they'll still be coming.
And — crucially — new cases will *only* decline if those measures we took 1-2 weeks ago were actually effective! If not? Try again, 1-2 more weeks of partially to fully unmitigated exponential growth in a region that cannot treat those patients.
To put some numbers: expect 80-100x increase in cases since social contacting is started (examples below). https://twitter.com/dellannaluca/status/1238850362083143682?s=21 …https://twitter.com/DellAnnaLuca/status/1238850362083143682 …
Which is why we need to overdo it on social distancing, set up test infra, and then *slowly* back off the social distancing pedal.
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