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I want to share this chart again, because now that so many of us have seen what can change in just one week, I think it's remarkably sobering. What this chart shows is that the "new cases" we're dealing with today are *actually* the new cases of ~2 weeks ago.pic.twitter.com/jH48UDxLQd
If I get infected today, I'll be none the wiser for ~3-14 days while the infection incubates. Then it might be a few days before I'm able to get a test, even if I'm in a country with test access. Which means that my infection is a debt taken against tomorrow's hospital capacity.
If today's the day that my city decides that the hospitals are in trouble and drastic measures will be taken, we'll still be dealing with an *exponentially growing* caseload for 1-2 weeks. Then, and only then, will new daily cases begin to decline. But they'll still be coming.
And — crucially — new cases will *only* decline if those measures we took 1-2 weeks ago were actually effective! If not? Try again, 1-2 more weeks of partially to fully unmitigated exponential growth in a region that cannot treat those patients.
More than 90% of the population is vulnerable to time-delayed-logical-consequence attacks With its 2-week incubation period, the virus has defeated society’s immune system
I’ve done a lot of work on this and confirmed cases is primarily a function of number of tests as most countries are massively under testing. I have charts that I’ll send after I update w new data at around 4pm et.
Too bad it looks like all major US cities had St Patrick's Day parties yesterday.
Yes, exactly. Two main factors here: 1) Reinforcing feedback loop - enables exponential growth of the virus 2) Delay - between the time you get infected and time you start showing symptoms. This graph explains it perfectly. Just made a video about thathttps://youtu.be/bTwBiAK3umQ
Great chart. Source/link?
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