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webdevMason's profile
Mason 🏃‍♂️✂️
Mason 🏃‍♂️✂️
Mason  🏃‍♂️ ✂️
@webdevMason

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Mason  🏃‍♂️ ✂️

@webdevMason

LA → Oakland
calendly.com/masonhartman
Joined July 2015

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    1. Mason  🏃‍♂️ ✂️‏ @webdevMason Mar 14
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      IMO, the giant gamble the UK is taking is that any immunity granted by COVID-19 lasts longer than the tissue damage many may sustain that could render them weak to a 2nd wave. I don't think they'll get to test this; I expect the strategy will be abandoned when the NHS is hit hardpic.twitter.com/gPjjY9PasS

      16 replies 14 retweets 125 likes
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    2. rich‏ @farty Mar 15
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      Replying to @webdevMason @jes5199

      I don't understand, isn't the mortality rate say 2% so we need 2% of 60M i.e 1.2M people to die in the first wave?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Bewildered Bear‏ @ArturBuchhorn Mar 15
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      Replying to @farty @webdevMason @jes5199

      Upper bound of death rate is something like .6 as we know from Korea.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Mason  🏃‍♂️ ✂️‏ @webdevMason Mar 15
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      Replying to @ArturBuchhorn @farty @jes5199

      I don't buy any reasoning that assumes the outcomes from a South Korean response can be generalized globally

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    5. Bewildered Bear‏ @ArturBuchhorn Mar 15
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      Replying to @webdevMason @farty @jes5199

      It's a characteristic of the disease. If we assume that they were able to properly treat everyone then that's the rate. Improper care can change the numbers of course but that's the upper bound.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Mason  🏃‍♂️ ✂️‏ @webdevMason Mar 15
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      Replying to @ArturBuchhorn @farty @jes5199

      No...? Mortality rate is never a characteristic of any disease and *always* a function of diagnostics, treatment, features of the population, etc. 100 years ago COVID-19 would likely have had a CFR closer to 6-10%. In another 100 years it might be nearly 0.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    7. Bewildered Bear‏ @ArturBuchhorn Mar 15
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      Replying to @webdevMason

      Sure. Because every disease is as deadly as the other. Just because treatment etc. can vary widely does not mean that it's never a characteristic of the disease.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Mason  🏃‍♂️ ✂️‏ @webdevMason Mar 15
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      Replying to @ArturBuchhorn

      Of diseases vary in lethality. That doesn't imply that you can pluck a stat like that from a country with an exceptionally competent diagnostic/treatment response and claim to have found an "upper bound" on lethality that is somehow characteristic of the disease itself.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Bewildered Bear‏ @ArturBuchhorn Mar 15
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      Replying to @webdevMason

      It does however give you a good idea of what we're dealing with. The Koreans do not have cure and are treating with conventional methods.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Mason  🏃‍♂️ ✂️‏ @webdevMason Mar 15
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      Replying to @ArturBuchhorn

      Yes. It tells you that South Korea's patient profiles + South Korea's public health response net you South Korea's results. There's a perfectly good reason to not be baffled when you see dramatically more fatalities in Iran and Italy, and fewer in South Korea and Singapore.

      4:08 AM - 15 Mar 2020
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        1. Isabela Granic‏ @PlayNiceInst Mar 15
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          Replying to @webdevMason @ArturBuchhorn

          As an aside, I really appreciate the discussion/debate/critical takes without resorting to hostility and insults. I'm finding it impossible to find these nitty gritty details hashed out in the media and for my mind, this type of analysis from "all sides" is crucial rt now. THANKS

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        2. Bewildered Bear‏ @ArturBuchhorn Mar 15
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          Replying to @webdevMason

          Yeah, which is what I have argued. Korean rate is more indicative because their sample size is so much larger.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Bewildered Bear‏ @ArturBuchhorn Mar 15
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          Replying to @ArturBuchhorn @webdevMason

          I'm not suggesting that this is what we'll be seeing everywhere. It just puts the lethality of it into perspective. More so than other numbers because they are inflated due to small sample size.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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