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IMO, the giant gamble the UK is taking is that any immunity granted by COVID-19 lasts longer than the tissue damage many may sustain that could render them weak to a 2nd wave. I don't think they'll get to test this; I expect the strategy will be abandoned when the NHS is hit hardpic.twitter.com/gPjjY9PasS
It seems the UK is anticipating an opportunity to pivot if it seems prudent to keep the NHS functional. Another big gamble — by the time you adjust policy, you'll still have to deal with the exponentially growing number of cases not yet diagnosed + infections not yet symptomaticpic.twitter.com/rU1U4a81QD
And it will be too late by then
Yes, if that happens the UK will look much like Italy, to a greater or lesser extent — depending on how many older/ill people can be kept totally isolated from the sick.
Definitely a gamble but so is any policy response at this point
I most definitely do not want to endorse the UK's strategy, but your summary of it does not seem accurate.
In what way?
Agreed. I give it 3 weeks max.
I don't understand, isn't the mortality rate say 2% so we need 2% of 60M i.e 1.2M people to die in the first wave?
Upper bound of death rate is something like .6 as we know from Korea.
To me, the interesting part of the approach is focusing extra hard on the elderly and trying to keep some semblance of economy running smoothly. I think these are important ideas.https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-14/elderly-to-be-quarantined-for-four-months-in-wartime-style-mobilisation-to-combat-coronavirus/ …
It's clearly an attempt at a strategy that doesn't immediately disable the economy the way most others have, but it relies on a number of assumptions that cannot be made confidently at this point & it may be risking one of the highest COVID-19 death rates in the world
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