That would mean Italy is only counting (or tested) the most serious cases and the rest are asymptomatic for the CFR to be that low. Italy is currently at 6.6% They are being even more proactive that Korea.
In a nutshell: there are historical, evidence- & model-based reasons to estimate that COVID-19 kills 0.5-0.9% of patients wherever spread slows to a pace hospitals can accommodate, and ~3-5% where hospitals become overburdered This *requires* intervention at very low case countshttps://twitter.com/patrickc/status/1237828008771072001 …
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No, it means that they were not ready for this and working at their limits to handle it properly. Those who act quicker are going to handle it better because the situation will not grow out of their hand. China actually acted quite well.
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And it may be seasonal now.
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Containment and preemption. Needs to be stopped before health system is overburdened, no matter the country.
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0.5 / 0.9% is very very far away to the death ratio in Italy. Please update your model. The ratio today is ~6%.
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That's very close to the 5% she quoted for when hospitals are being overwhelmed, which seems to be what is happening in northern Italy.
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Yes, it’s the data we’re using. 6% Italy, 3.X China, etc. any conclusion on the data looks “soft” on evidence.
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Meaning China numbers, and Iran number (being closer to Soth Korea numbers) are better than Italy numbers?
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Take a look to the topmost positions, and tell me you can conclude the SK and Germany numbers are the correct ones.pic.twitter.com/nHQyMwD8Tc
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I’m not saying SK numbers are false, I’m saying they are outliers for the analysis.
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