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Somewhere in between those two, probably... but we wont know until we can randomly test enough asymptomatic people to get an accurate idea of how many people are actually infected: Most will never know they are, and we won't truly know how deadly it is, otherwise.
Browsing work on SARS survivors, it looks like it was in the range of 1 in 2 at 6 months & much closer to 1 in 100 at 12+ months. But SARS was a deadlier illness, which may mean those rates are high. Or we could see *more* injury with COVID-19 because fewer critical cases die...?
IIRC, SARS was 1 in 10 mortality? So a 1 in 2 chance of some fibrosis that largely heals... Still not good. But not the "Get inside, younguns" we've kind of been hoping for. /Because "Don't kill Grandma" clearly didn't work.
I mean, obviously I don't hope for young people to be injured by this. My intent is to point that this is a disease that causes real tissue damage — you can see it. It's not just a cough. We won't know how well our bodies respond to this damage for many months to come.
I heard that SARS-COV-2 doesn’t always settle in the lungs, leading to only mild symptoms and obviously no lung damage. I suspect that both how critical a case is and how much long-term damage there is to be correlated to the amount of virus that is actually in the lungs.
SARS-COV can only settle in the lungs, which makes it both less transmissible, but also less lethal.
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