I'm assuming most people who voted misread it and didn't see the "LESS THAN"??? Otherwise, the wisdom of the crowd is a bit scary.
If you had to guess, how likely do you consider it that COVID-19 will ultimately result in LESS THAN 10,000 deaths in the US? (The current US population is ~327 million, and in recent years ~2.8 million people have died from all causes in the US per year.)
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Judging by the similarity to this poll (which asks the opposite), I assume ppl misread.https://twitter.com/webdevMason/status/1234201322741616640?s=19 …
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At a 0.5% death rate, that would be <2 million infected. That's around 6% of the population. Don't think the virus was contained, so we'll see a higher percent of the population infected. Division and multiplication has never made me this nervous, I'll be honest.
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so far Hubei province has about 50 deaths per million residents for a novel disease that hit during their biggest travel season. if this is the midpoint for Hubei and they reach 6,000 victims, I think US will stay under 10,000 because of foreknowledge
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I think the expected case is bad, but not going to cause chaos, but the worst case is really bad, like if you made a list of ppl with no medical care globally, what if it goes around between them for the next year. or what if airports have to do illness screening, forever
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