In one year? Or just ongoing forever?
If you had to guess, how likely do you consider it that COVID-19 will ultimately result in >1 million deaths in the US? (The current US population is ~327 million, and in recent years ~2.8 million people have died from all causes in the US per year.)
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Expect it will be in the 50 000 to 500 000 range. Spanish flu had 2% mortality, 30% infected rate. Same rates would put this at 2 million, but I expect/hope with modern medicine and not trying to pretend nothing is happening because of a world war, this will go better.
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Overall case fatality rate probably much lower. Penetration into the population unclear but partially under our control (hand washing, distancing, avoiding touching face w hands). Big uncertainty is whether this becomes a seasonal "flu."
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I think the voters are underestimating the chance this becomes an endemic virus alongside the flu viruses we currently have. “Ultimately” could mean after a number of decades.
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327 * 0.3 (expected percentage of infections) * 0.01 (mortality) gives a bit under a million.
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That rate would have South Korea 15 million infections and 150 thousand deaths. So far they have fewer than 4 thousand infections and 20 deaths. It's still early but I'm skeptical it will get that bad. And they have a much denser more urban population than the US.
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I would bet even odds there will be more deaths from flu in US than from Covid19.
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I'd say a ~30% chance over 18-24 months.
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Currently? 50-95% because uncertainty on CFR but leaning towards >95%
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If the US, which only has 4% of the world’s population, ends up with more than one million deaths, things will look really bad on a worldwide basis.
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