It's to be expected. People will underreact as long as everything looks the same as it always does when they open their front door, and overreact the moment it doesn't. It's really difficult to learn to use other indicators to smooth shifts in expectation over time
If you had to guess, how likely do you consider an official, strictly enforced quarantine (e.g. roadblocks, curfew) of any major US city due to the novel coronavirus, at any point in the next 24 months?
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I understand *why* you made the intervals the way you did but they are making me v uncomfortable
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Why? Please elaborate. Is it because you think that these intervals leak info about
@webdevMason 's prediction in this regard? - 1 more reply
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Not likely an entire major US city. Smaller areas, quite likely. Ban on large gatherings, definitely. Lots of schools and businesses shut.
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In next 24 months very likely, in next 24 days (which is when it should happen before it’s too late) very unlikely.
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At least one US city now being used for quarantines was chosen because it would be easy roadblock.
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