That's a long time
If you had to guess, how likely do you consider an official, strictly enforced quarantine (e.g. roadblocks, curfew) of any major US city due to the novel coronavirus, at any point in the next 24 months?
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Not likely an entire major US city. Smaller areas, quite likely. Ban on large gatherings, definitely. Lots of schools and businesses shut.
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I understand *why* you made the intervals the way you did but they are making me v uncomfortable
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Why? Please elaborate. Is it because you think that these intervals leak info about
@webdevMason 's prediction in this regard? - Show replies
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If it hits NYC and spreads? Almost 100% that they'll copy Wuhan. Other cities, maybe less extreme.
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Perhaps China correctly understands risk. High likeliness and high severity means high risk. They have experience with SARS, H1N1 etc. so have hard earned experience of the importance of early response.
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It's to be expected. People will underreact as long as everything looks the same as it always does when they open their front door, and overreact the moment it doesn't. It's really difficult to learn to use other indicators to smooth shifts in expectation over time
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It deserves to be taken seriously to keep it from becoming worse, but I still rank the flu as more likely to kill me.
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In next 24 months very likely, in next 24 days (which is when it should happen before it’s too late) very unlikely.
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I wanted to answer 10% but felt that the "5 - 50%" bin did not accurately capture my belief so I voted <5%. I realize numbers are a thing and 10 is literally between 5 and 50...but <5% had more truthiness for me, I guess
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