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Researchers now believe that COVID-19 has been spreading in Washington state since the first confirmed case in January, and that there is *at least* one outbreak in the state consisting of hundreds of *current* active cases that have not been identified.https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1233975581974228994 …
With a few hundred active infections, we might expect ~30-90 hospitalizations and something like 2-6 deaths. The first few weeks would've seen only a handful of infections, rapidly ramping up. Easily to miss/mistake for the flu at those numbers, especially with tests unavailable https://twitter.com/RickyRoma0/status/1233995348713959424 …
Before Thursday, patients in the US weren't tested unless they'd recently visited China or had known contact with a confirmed case. Testing remains a mess. There could be many cases in hospitals across the US presenting with severe flu symptoms, misdiagnosed or waiting on results
P-Value of 0.032, basically p-value of 5 heads in a row. Obviously unlikely, but if you look at 50 different outbreaks the probability seeing at least one that looks like this is 82% But I know literally nothing about genome analysis so maybe I’m totally off base
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