Mason  🏃‍♂️ ✂️

I wouldn't be so sure about this. People are upset about pay-to-play healthcare when there's enough for everybody. If you've got widespread transmission on an illness w/ 10-20% requiring hospitalization, people will want to buy their way out of the queue/lotteryhttps://twitter.com/naval/status/1232067183338897408 …

“Availability Bias” - shifts the front and center issue from Trump’s strong point (economy) to Bernie’s (healthcare).

This is probably pretty bad for Trump, but moreso because it is a very bad thing (including for the otherwise strong economy) and it's happening while he's in office. Voting behavior doesn't really track causality or counterfactuals

Even with widespread community spread in the US prior to November, I'm anticipating a Trump win. Excepting the betting markets, everyone seems to be underestimating just how many of the long-standing indicators are in his favor right now

Comes down to Bernie’s ability to expand the voter base and the inexorable vise of demographics.

I'm more tentative about this, but I think Bernie & Trump are playing similar games, with similarly small diehard bases. They win when the other side fucks up, and for the incumbent that basically only means a disastrous turn for the economy

One thing's for sure: the Democrats already tried their hand at "anyone but Trump, right guys?" and last time they had the distinct advantage of a plausible narrative wherein Trump would be *so* incompetent or aggressive that he'd literally trigger a world war