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In other words, the model painted by the data looks like a *plausible story* about an outbreak — but only plausible to someone who's unfamiliar with modeling viral phenomena, or otherwise willing to accept a **very** coincidental impact from the various interventions over time
As far as I can tell, the smart money take is "don't listen to what China is saying, look at what China is doing."https://twitter.com/jorge_guajardo/status/1226299282803822592 …
That’s how I’ve been thinking about this. Yikes, hadn’t heard this “Beijing authorities have said that lying about having contact with someone with coronavirus could be punishable by death.”
it seems to be about the rapid depletion of ICU bedstock 25% of infected will need ICU to survive if all 25% get ICU access, 85% of those will make it -- after a 3-week battle, the last week being in ICU the high r0 kills the bedstock
"As far as I can tell, the smart money take is "don't listen to what China is saying, look at what China is doing." Is this irony? Because quite frankly the whole point is about what china is saying, instead of what china is doing?
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