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The TLDR; of this is that the best fit line for the coronavirus data reported doesn't make any sense given how we understand virality, and "but containment procedures and stuff" **really shouldn't** adjust us to a near-perfect quadratic model from the expected exponential one!
In other words, the model painted by the data looks like a *plausible story* about an outbreak — but only plausible to someone who's unfamiliar with modeling viral phenomena, or otherwise willing to accept a **very** coincidental impact from the various interventions over time
As far as I can tell, the smart money take is "don't listen to what China is saying, look at what China is doing."https://twitter.com/jorge_guajardo/status/1226299282803822592 …
shouldn't we expect a sigmoidal curve (which can look similar to quadratic) for viral cases due to the vastly increased awareness and restrictions (which we are seeing)? and besides, the provided quadratic function is way off the mark past the day it was posted, as expected.
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