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"It’s pretty suspicious that a quadratic expression fits the reported data so very, very closely... I believe that the Chinese government is massively under-reporting infection data in the pandemic regions of Hubei and Zhejiang provinces." — @EpsilonTheoryhttps://www.epsilontheory.com/body-count/
The TLDR; of this is that the best fit line for the coronavirus data reported doesn't make any sense given how we understand virality, and "but containment procedures and stuff" **really shouldn't** adjust us to a near-perfect quadratic model from the expected exponential one!
In other words, the model painted by the data looks like a *plausible story* about an outbreak — but only plausible to someone who's unfamiliar with modeling viral phenomena, or otherwise willing to accept a **very** coincidental impact from the various interventions over time
As far as I can tell, the smart money take is "don't listen to what China is saying, look at what China is doing."https://twitter.com/jorge_guajardo/status/1226299282803822592 …
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