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"It’s pretty suspicious that a quadratic expression fits the reported data so very, very closely... I believe that the Chinese government is massively under-reporting infection data in the pandemic regions of Hubei and Zhejiang provinces." — @EpsilonTheoryhttps://www.epsilontheory.com/body-count/
The TLDR; of this is that the best fit line for the coronavirus data reported doesn't make any sense given how we understand virality, and "but containment procedures and stuff" **really shouldn't** adjust us to a near-perfect quadratic model from the expected exponential one!
In other words, the model painted by the data looks like a *plausible story* about an outbreak — but only plausible to someone who's unfamiliar with modeling viral phenomena, or otherwise willing to accept a **very** coincidental impact from the various interventions over time
As far as I can tell, the smart money take is "don't listen to what China is saying, look at what China is doing."https://twitter.com/jorge_guajardo/status/1226299282803822592 …
I think we’re just seeing an expression of their capacity to test people.
Looking at the cumulative deaths instead of looking at the number of deaths each day leads to illusory smoothness; the deaths per day wiggle around about as expected. Also, the number of confirmed cases has diverged from the model in the post https://www.facebook.com/robert.wiblin/posts/881615859635?comment_id=881675784545 …
(look at the thread spawned by the top comment on that post for more info)
A simple random-graph model gives exponential behavior; it doesn't seem impossible that a quarantine could be implemented that would effect a low-dimensional graph that would produce power-law behavior. I don't think that's more likely than the CCP lying, though.
Seems related to your CV tweets @jillruthcarlson
im trying to aggregate research herehttps://knovigator.com/quest/curated-coronavirus-sources-4o6rq94o …
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