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In order to understand the "don't worry about coronavirus, worry about the flu" coverage, you have to understand that there will be virtually no consequences for the press for getting this wrong, and plausibly some "we told you so" cred otherwise
Listen to the NYT Daily podcast ep titled "The Lessons of 2016." These people still somehow think that Trump was some sort of probablistic abnormality, a long shot they could not possibly have seen coming. There's zero sense of responsibility re: predictive accuracy
This is subtle but important: the media holds itself accountable for having *a good story about why it said what it said,* not for accuracy or a strong record of prediction.
100% predictive accuracy. You will tweet.
man, the daily drives me nuts, and I always end up catching the tail end of it since it airs right before marketplace. Maybe the worst show on IPR
Re responsibility for accuracy- When people give predictions/advice I love to test out their actual confidence by challenging them to commit to a bet. Mostly they refuse but the thought is sobering enough that they walk back their overconfidence!
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