Mason  🏃‍♂️ ✂️

Some folks seem to be reading between the lines that I support Trump's choice here. I don't, but I'm also not decrying it. This is a complex situation w/ high opacity. It's broadly agreed that neither side would see an upside to a war, but both are stuck playing face-saving games

This is the lens through which I'm seeing the media select its narrative, and "this means war" is a terrible settling place for that if, in fact— as everyone seems to agree — the incentives driving the danger are related to saving face

One claim I find ludicrous: that Trump — or any candidate for the presidency — would benefit in the upcoming election from appearing to favor a war w/ Iran. This doesn't speak to how his handling will look in light of the full facts, but if a new war results it will not help him.

A claim I don’t find ludicrous - Trump might believe that being involved in a war will help his re-election. (It seems to have helped George Bush in 04)

George Bush wasn't facing an electorate exhausted by a decade and a half of fruitless warring in the Middle East. The war still saw bipartisan support then. The idea is uttery laughable now.

But even if you assume that Trump is occupying an alternate reality wherein US voters want *more* involvement in conflicts in the region in 2020, it doesn't explain why Trump is explicitly saying he's trying to avoid a war. If he thinks the people want one, why would he say that?

I’m not saying he thinks people want war (although clearly many journalists seem to), I’m saying he might think that being involved in a war will help him politically somehow (maybe emphasize his willingness to do what needs to be done to protect America vs scared Democrats)