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Perhaps hyperbole. But core political speech concerning a matter of public concern nonetheless. Addition of that "Statistically, there is likely ..." would certainly have made the claim more accurate. But she has a right to exaggerate as well. Just look at all our politicians!
Maybe she does — the interpretation of what speech conduct rules schools can enforce in these contexts is variable. But in that case, it's clear that the statement was quite likely false, that she had no reason to believe it wasn't, and it caused harm.
Since herself did not know of a rapist, you could argue that the "you know who it is" phrase does disrupt, and that the claim did cause disruption w/o sincerely furthering a legitimate political or public purpose. Would have to actually read the judgment to really figure out.
After some further thought, and still not having actually read the judgment, the schoolgirl, ACLU, and Judge all probably acted and ruled correctly. Emphasizing the existence of rapists, and requesting peers to attempt to identify them does further a matter of public concern.
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