I think it's vital, at this point, to consider the distinct possibility that "China wins" is the default global outcome when considering what kind of country the US should be politically & economically. If you don't like communism *or* you don't like ethnostates, that matters
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To win, though, China needs to get to pt where 3rd party trade is done in RMB & RMB is seen as global risk-free. To get that means opening the capital a/c, which creates the risk of massive cap flight. Huge weakness remains in Chinese model.
I think that would be proof of the win, but that the win can most definitely functionally occur prior to that
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I think that point is so far away. The Soviets were a similar threat, able to support client regimes to suppress their own people, but the lure of freedom and self-determination is worth so much more than the opportunity to support your local Party.
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That said, ethno-nationalist policies within the US while weaponising the dollar's global role, are gifts to China in the struggle.
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